Simple pot odds and implied odds
Simple pot odds
Simple pot odds, or expressed pot odds, apply when considering a call when no further betting will be made (e.g., calling a bet on the final round). Simple pot odds are the ratio of the size of the potential bet to the size of the pot (bet-to-pot ratio).
For example, if a player must call a $10 bet for a chance to win a $40 pot (not including the player’s $10 call), the player’s simple pot odds are 1-to-4 (20% probability). Continuing the example, assume the player’s odds of winning are also 20%. If the pot is played five times, the player puts in $10 five times, loses four times and wins $50 once (breaking even). This means that a player should call a bet in this situation if he estimates his chance of winning to be greater than 20%.
Expressed mathematically, a player should call a bet if his probability of winning is greater than: bet / (pot size + bet).
Implied pot odds
Implied pot odds, or implied odds, apply in situations where future betting may occur (e.g., with more cards or more draws to come) and the player’s hand is currently a certain loser but may improve to a certain winner (e.g., improving from no pair to a nut flush). Precise calculation of implied odds for hands that may be probable winners is significantly more complex and not well-documented in poker literature.
Note on terminology: some authors use the term implied pot odds to specifically refer to situations with one card (or draw) to come and the term effective implied pot odds to refer to situations with more than one card (or draw) to come.
A player’s implied pot is the current pot plus the value of future bets expected from opponents that may be won, excluding the player’s own bets. When figuring the implied pot, a player must estimate the bets expected from opponents in the event the player wins the pot.
Texas Hold’Em example:
George holds the Ace of spades and the board shows three low spades with one card to come. George believes he will only win if another spade comes on the river to make him a nut flush. To figure his implied pot, George must estimate the expected bets by his opponents if the spade comes on the last card. In that event, because of the fair chance the opponent may not have a high spade; George may reasonably have a low expectation of further contributions to the pot by his opponents.
A player’s effective bet is the sum of the current potential bet plus all future bets a player expects to make to see the last card, excluding any bets on the end. When there is only one card to come, the effective bet is simply the current potential bet under consideration. A player’s implied pot odds are the ratio of the effective bet to the implied pot.
Texas Hold’Em example, two cards to come:
With two cards to come, George holds a nut flush draw after the flop and faces a $5 call to win a $20 pot. If George makes his flush, he expects his opponent to contribute another $10 on the turn and $10 on the river. George’s effective call is $15 ($5 on the flop + $10 on the turn). George’s implied pot is $40 ($20 current pot + $10 turn + $10 river). George’s implied pot odds are $15-to-$40 or 27% (15 / (15 + 40)). A call by George has a positive expectation because the probability of making his flush (35% with two cards to come) is greater than the implied pot odds (27%).
Texas Hold’Em example, one card to come:
With one card to come, George still holds a nut flush draw and faces a $10 call to win a $35 pot. If George makes his flush, he expects his opponent to contribute another $10 in the final round. George’s implied pot is $45 ($35 current pot + 10 future bets by her opponent). George’s implied pot odds are $10-to-$45 or 18% (10 / (10 + 45)). A call by George has an about break-even expectation because the probability of making his flush (19% with one card to come) is about the same as his implied pot odds (18%).
Implied odds represent how much money you might be able to make if you successfully hit a drawing hand. Implied odds are simply future pot odds.
When to call and when to fold
Let’s say that you are holding Jack of clubs and 10 of clubs. On the flop a Queen of hearts, an 8 of spades, and a 2 of hearts are dealt out. The pot is $30. The first player to act bets $10. All the other players call him.
It is now our turn. Your pot odds are $70:$10, and you have a gut shot straight draw, any 9 will make your hand. You are 11:1 against completing your hand on the turn while getting only 7:1 on a call. In this case you should only call your hand if you believe there is another $40 bet on the turn.
Understanding when to call and when to fold can prove to be crucial to your game. That is why we have prepared a few more examples meant to get you to better understand this.
Example no. 1:
The pot is $100. A player just bet you $500. What are the pot odds?
The pot odds are $600:$500, or about 1.2 to 1.
Example no. 2:
Yo have been dealt a 5 of clubs and a 4 f clubs. On the flop an Ace of spades, a King of spades and a 2 of clubs are dealt out. Your opponent may have a Big Slick, Ace and King. In the pot there are $80 and both of you have $500 to wager with. The opponent bet $50. What do you do next?
Your card odds are 11:1 to make your straight and your pot odds are only $130:$50, or about 3:1. Folding is the best option.
But since the opponent has two top pairs he will most likely bet all of his chips. In this case the pot odds are $630:$50 or about 13:1. Calling is the best option in this case because your pot odds are greater than your card odds.
Example no. 3:
Yo have been dealt a 5 of hearts and a 6 of hearts. On the flop an Ace of spades, a 7 of clubs and a 3 of spades are dealt out. The opponent has been dealt an Ace and a 7. He is playing aggressive and you assume he will call or raise, regardless what card will be dealt out on the river. You have $840 and he has $950 to wager with. Before the turn the pot is $20. The opponent bet $40. What do you do next?
Your card odds are 11:1 to make your straight and your pot odds are $60:$40, or about 1.5:1.
But you have reason to believe the opponent will call even if a 4 will be dealt out. The implied pot odds are $860:$40, or about 21:1. Calling is the best option in this case because your pot odds are greater than your card odds.
